Negotiations between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland State President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, commonly known as Ahmed Madobe, have ended without an agreement after two days of tense discussions in the southern port city of Kismayo.
According to official and diplomatic sources, the talks — which began on Saturday and concluded late Sunday — failed to produce a breakthrough on key political disputes, particularly the controversial Jubaland regional election held in November 2024 and Madobe’s participation in the National Consultative Council (NCC).
President Hassan Sheikh reportedly insisted that the Jubaland election process should be revisited, arguing that it lacked transparency and excluded critical federal oversight mechanisms. Ahmed Madobe, however, firmly rejected the demand, maintaining that the election was legitimate and reflected the will of the Jubaland people.
The discussions were attended by senior federal officials, regional advisers, and Kenya’s former intelligence chief Nooradin, who acted as an informal mediator during the Kismayo meetings. The Kenyan intermediary was reportedly instrumental in arranging the dialogue, which aimed to bridge widening divisions between Mogadishu and Kismayo.
Sources close to the Somali delegation confirmed that President Hassan Sheikh’s team is now returning to Mogadishu following the deadlock. Meanwhile, Nooradin is expected to depart Kismayo as well after completing his mediation role. Both leaders, however, have agreed in principle to resume talks at a later date, though no firm timetable has been announced.
Relations between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Jubaland administration have long been strained over issues of autonomy, resource control, and election legitimacy. The 2024 Jubaland polls deepened the political rift, with Mogadishu accusing Madobe’s administration of manipulating the vote to entrench his power, while Jubaland officials dismissed the allegations as political interference.
The failed talks come amid ongoing efforts by the federal government to consolidate unity among Somalia’s Federal Member States and strengthen cooperation under the National Consultative Council framework — a platform designed to coordinate national policies and elections across the country.
Political analysts say the breakdown of talks in Kismayo signals a potential setback for Somalia’s broader state-building agenda. The strained relations between the federal and regional governments could complicate upcoming reforms tied to national security coordination, constitutional review, and preparations for the 2026 national elections.
While both sides have expressed willingness to continue dialogue, the lack of tangible progress underscores the deep mistrust that continues to define Somalia’s federal system. As one diplomat familiar with the talks noted, “Without genuine compromise and confidence-building measures, the divide between Mogadishu and Kismayo will only widen.”
For now, the political standoff leaves Jubaland’s status — and its role in Somalia’s fragile federal structure — hanging in the balance.
