Somalia Cancels UAE Deals as Saudi-UAE Red Sea Rivalry Widens

Saudi Arabia is expanding its strategic competition with the United Arab Emirates beyond Yemen and into the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, opening a new front in a rivalry that is reshaping security and influence across one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.

Once close partners in the Yemen war, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now find themselves pursuing diverging agendas over ports, military positioning and political alliances stretching from southern Yemen to Somalia’s coastline.

Saudi officials have moved to consolidate influence on both sides of the Gulf of Aden, a shipping route linking Asia, Africa and Europe, while Somalia has abruptly cancelled a series of security and port agreements with the UAE in a decision that analysts say fits into a wider regional recalibration.

Strategic Push on Two Shores

On Yemen’s southern coast, Saudi Arabia has increased its presence through local forces including the Homeland Shield Forces and the Giants Brigades, deploying personnel and attempting to unify fragmented armed factions under a Saudi-aligned command structure, according to regional security sources.

Saudi officers have also arrived on key Yemeni islands including Socotra and Mayyun, and around the western port city of Mokha, long dominated by forces loyal to Tareq Saleh and backed by the UAE. The moves signal Riyadh’s intent to challenge Emirati dominance over strategic positions along the Red Sea entrance.

Across the water in Somalia, the government has cancelled all cooperation agreements with Abu Dhabi covering the ports of Berbera, Bosaso and Kismayo, as well as military and airport access arrangements.

Somalia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Ali Mohamed Omar, said the cabinet acted after reviewing what it called years of actions by the UAE that undermined Somalia’s sovereignty and unity.

“The agreements allowed foreign military presence on Somali territory,” Omar said in a televised interview. “All Emirati personnel were required to leave.”

While Somalia did not publicly link the move to Saudi Arabia, analysts say the timing coincides with Riyadh’s broader push to rebalance power along the Red Sea basin.

Trigger Incident

Tensions escalated after Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC), transited through Somalia en route to the UAE under what Somali officials described as irregular procedures.

Somalia’s foreign minister later said the UAE had secretly transported al-Zubaidi from Berbera to Mogadishu before placing him on another aircraft bound for Abu Dhabi, without listing his name on the passenger manifest.

The minister called the episode a “serious violation” of Somali sovereignty, adding that intelligence showed al-Zubaidi had been concealed onboard. He said the incident alone was enough to justify cancelling the agreements, though it was not the only factor.

Al-Zubaidi was accompanied by Major General Awad Saeed bin Musleh al-Ahbabi, a senior commander at the UAE Ministry of Defence, heightening Somali concerns over foreign military activity on its soil.

Why the Red Sea Matters

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden form one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, handling roughly 12 percent of global trade, including energy shipments linking the Middle East with Europe and Asia.

Over the past decade, the UAE has built an extensive port and security network across the region, from Assab in Eritrea to Berbera in northern Somalia, using infrastructure investment to project influence.

Saudi Arabia, traditionally dominant along the Red Sea, now appears determined to counter what it views as Emirati overreach.

Riyadh’s strategy goes beyond Yemen’s battlefield, analysts say, and reflects a broader effort to secure shipping lanes, prevent rival control of ports and strengthen Saudi leverage in the Horn of Africa.

Regional Recalibration

The rivalry is playing out as Horn of Africa states reassess their foreign partnerships. Eritrea and Djibouti have previously dismantled Emirati military facilities, signalling a shift away from Abu Dhabi’s once-expansive regional footprint.

For Somalia, the decision to cut UAE ties marks a significant geopolitical pivot as Mogadishu seeks to assert sovereignty over ports and airspace after years of fragmented authority.

“The Red Sea is no longer just a trade route,” said a regional analyst based in Nairobi. “It has become a strategic theatre where Gulf competition, African politics and global shipping intersect.”

From Yemen War to Maritime Contest

Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered Yemen’s war together in 2015, but their priorities gradually diverged. Riyadh backed Yemen’s territorial unity, while Abu Dhabi supported southern autonomy forces and built influence through ports and local militias.

What began as tactical disagreement has evolved into a contest over maritime space, islands and alliances from the Arabian Peninsula to Africa’s eastern rim.

Outlook

As Saudi Arabia strengthens its footprint across Yemen’s coast and Somalia redraws its foreign partnerships, the Gulf rivalry is shifting offshore.

For Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa, the contest is turning local ports into geopolitical assets, embedding the region deeper into Middle Eastern power struggles over security, trade and control of the Red Sea gateway.