Ethiopia convened a ministerial meeting with Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on October 16, 2024, despite Somalia’s explicit objections to Ethiopia’s involvement in the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
The meeting, held during the African Defense Leaders Conference in Addis Ababa, was led by Ethiopia’s Defense Minister Aisha Mohammed and included defense ministers from Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya, and Uganda. The discussions centered on the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM, set to replace the current mission by January 2025.
Somalia’s opposition to Ethiopia’s involvement stems from a contentious agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Ethiopia’s recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland grants access to the strategic Red Sea port of Berbera, a move that has inflamed tensions across the Horn of Africa.
Somalia, which does not recognize Somaliland as an independent state, sees this deal as a violation of its sovereignty. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud publicly condemned the agreement, calling it an “unacceptable breach†of Somalia’s territorial integrity.
This diplomatic rift comes at a time when Somalia is strengthening its alliance with Egypt. In recent months, Egyptian military advisors and troops have been deployed to Somalia under a defense agreement signed in August.
Egypt’s increased presence in Somalia, particularly in regions where Ethiopian forces have historically operated, has exacerbated tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. Addis Ababa views Egypt’s involvement as a direct challenge to its influence in the region, particularly given the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Ethiopia’s involvement in the peacekeeping mission has also drawn criticism from within Somalia.
“It’s paradoxical for Ethiopia to claim it is contributing to peacekeeping while simultaneously undermining Somalia’s sovereignty. Ethiopia’s policies have contributed to the rise of Al-Shabaab, and its presence in Somalia is a continuation of that destabilization.†Former Somali Federal Minister Abdi Aynte commented.
In a parallel development, the strategic alliance between Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea continues to deepen. The three nations solidified their partnership during a trilateral summit in Asmara, where they outlined plans to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions in the Red Sea region, particularly around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital maritime corridor for global trade.
Amid these geopolitical tensions, Ethiopia’s military has increased its activities in Somalia, including the controversial seizure of key airports in the Gedo region. Somali officials, including President Mohamud, have accused Ethiopia of arming clan militias to undermine the federal government. Ethiopian troops under ATMIS have also been blamed for blocking the deployment of Egyptian forces to key strategic locations.
As the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM approaches, financial and operational challenges loom large. The African Union’s peacekeeping efforts in Somalia have been consistently underfunded, and the ministers gathered in Addis Ababa stressed the need for sustainable financing for the new mission. AUSSOM is expected to require an additional $100 million to remain operational, but funding gaps and the increasing complexity of the mission—compounded by tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia—could undermine its effectiveness.
The European Union, a key financial supporter of ATMIS, has expressed concerns about Ethiopia’s role in AUSSOM, fearing that Ethiopia’s presence in the new mission could detract from its focus on stabilizing Somalia and defeating Al-Shabaab.
