Turkiye, acting as a middleman, arranged meetings on 12th December 2024 for Ethiopian and Somalia leaders to end their dispute, which started with the Memorandum of Understanding between breakaway region of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The MoU gives Ethiopia access to seaport and a “naval base,”
Somalia, needless to say, strongly opposed the Memorandum of Understanding and blamed Ethiopia for infringing international law by threatening Somalia’s sovereignty, while jeopardizing the good neighborly relationship between the two nations.
The region plunged into a darker era, and Somalia started seeking allies to prevent Ethiopia’s ambition to grasp a port on the Red Sea by joining hands with Egypt and Eritrea; both Ethiopia’s traditional enemy.
Turkiye, either taking pity on the region or protecting its geopolitical and economic interests in both countries (Ethiopia and Somalia) stepped forward to find a solution for the crisis.
Ankara arranged at least two foreign ministerial level face-to-face meetings between Ethiopia and Somalia and the later Somalia president and Ethiopian prime minister signed a declaration named the Ankara Declaration. Both leaders insinuated during a press conference in Ankara that they agreed to leave behind their differences and vexed issues and vowed as well to start a new chapter of cooperation, while thanking president Erdoğan for his facilitation and support.
On this point, the Declaration received mixed reactions – some welcomed while others opposed. The US, UK, and other countries hastened to congratulate the declaration, considering it as the beginning of the end of the conflict in the Horn of Africa. In other words, the countdown to peace started with the Ankara Declaration.
Suldaan Said Ahmed, Finland’s Foreign Minister’s Special Envoy on Peace Mediation in the Horn of Africa welcomed in a message he posted on his X account the Ankara Declaration brokered by Turkiye and signed by both Somalia and Ethiopian leaders to end the tension between the two Horn of Africa countries.
“I welcome the Ankara Declaration between two neighbors, Somalia and Ethiopia. This is an important step and a sign of mutual respect and commitment to peace. Appreciation for the role of Türkiye in facilitating this dialogue, central for stability in the Horn of Africa.” Suldaan Said Ahmed, Finland’s Foreign Minister’s Special Envoy on Peace Mediation in the Horn of Africa said.
Nothing is more laudable than seeing Somalia and Ethiopia leaders working in harmony toward sustainable peace for their fraternal nations, which are geographically and ethnically inseparable.
But, assessing the declaration and atmosphere of the region coupled with Egypt’s and Eritrea’s discontent with the Declaration, it is highly improbable if not completely impossible to witness in the near future a tangible outcome of the Ankara Declaration.
Turkiye saved its face as an international influencer and persuaded both sides to sign at least a declaration and to form a technical team that contemplates deeply both countries’ mutual interest in a give-and-take deal.
Egypt already started to look for an alternative ally to encounter Ethiopia due to its chronic strife on the Nile River with Ethiopia since Somalia and Ethiopia showed determination to solve the rift in a peaceful manner.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s leader Abiy is domestically facing strong opposition after signing the Ankara Declaration. Abiy has already made clear as crystal that he is unwaveringly going to fulfill Ethiopia’s ambition to access seaport. On the other hand, Somalia itself experienced a dilemma situation and had behind closed-door meeting with Egypt after Ankara’s declaration. It is not clear if Egypt signaled a possible withdrawal defense treaty it signed with Somalia, but speculations are indicating a fresh political impasse between Somalia and Egypt.
In Somalia, the Ankara Declaration was unwelcomed and categorized as a triumph for Ethiopia, since Ethiopia did not clearly step back from the Memorandum of Understanding it signed with Somaliland, which was the main reason for the countries’ dispute. In that regard, Somalis had given to the declaration a downbeat response.
Analysts argue Ethiopia transgressed Somalia’s sovereignty and unity by trying to annex part of Somalia’s Sea while Somalia’s leader signed a Declaration that gives Ethiopia an echo to demand a share of the Sea.
Said Mohamed, a university teacher in Mogadishu points out what the Ankara Declaration means for him as a Somali citizen and said. “Imagine, someone coming to your place and telling you to give him a space, for he has no place. You rejected vigorously his demand but after negotiations, you eventually agreed to sit down with that person, and work with him to get a place in your house and you know that there is no other place to offer except yours. What kind of rationality is that?”
What could come next after the Ankara Declaration?
It is unlikely that the Ankara Declaration will reduce peaked tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, as long as many gaps are still unresolved notably Ethiopia’s naval ambition and Somalia’s stance to exclude Ethiopia from the AU peacekeeping mission from January 2025, although it’s too early to expect swift result.
Turkiye’s Erdogan intends to visit Ethiopia and Somalia in the first two months of 2025 to show his commitment to the fragile deal he brokered hoping that it will bear fruits and end neighbors’ tension in a friendly way.
Somaliland’s special envoy to the African Union, Abdulahi Mohammud, told DW. “The relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia is not their business, but Somaliland minds its own business.” This means that, Somaliland clings on to the deal it signed with Ethiopia in exchange for recognition as an independent state.
Prominent opposition figure, Hassan Ali Khaire, former prime minister of Somalia voiced concerns against Ankara Declaration. Mr. Khiyre rebuffed the declaration and accused President Hassan Sheikh of double-crossing Sovereignty by signing an illegal declaration.
Somalis are disappointed in their Government’s move to sign Ethiopia favoring declaration and Al-Shabab may see this as an opportunity to recruit the ordinary people into their Jihadist claims that it is defending the Sovereignty of Somalia from Ethiopia and those aiding it to annex Somalia’s Sea.
In the meantime, Somalia dispatched a high-level ministerial delegation to Addis Ababa to further work technically with Ethiopia on the implementation of the Ankara Declaration, on the same day, Ethiopian armed forces attacked positions stationed by Somali forces in Doolow, Gedo region about 10 a.m. on 23rd December 2024, according to an official statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Somalia.
“Somalia strongly condemns the unprovoked aggression by Ethiopian forces in Doolow, violating our sovereignty, the Ankara Declaration, AU principles, and the UN Charter. Such blatant acts will not go unanswered” – The statement said.
This development does not align with the Ankara Declaration, and it debatably undermines the hope of peacefully ending the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute with the Ankara Declaration.
Although the region’s situation remains unpredictable and even subject to deterioration, there are also accessible paths to sustained peace, but this requires persistent diplomatic engagement equipped with genuine will from both sides and international mediation.
Written by: Abd Musse Mohamud
The author is chief editor of Finnish-Somali media network, media trainer and peace advocate and. He writes about peace and conflict solution in Horn of Africa.
