A renewed war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is among the conflicts most likely to erupt in 2026, according to a new assessment by Foreign Policy, which warns that escalating rhetoric and military deployments along their shared border have sharply raised the risk of confrontation.
The report lists Ethiopia–Eritrea among the world’s most dangerous flashpoints this year, citing heightened military preparedness, increasingly hostile political messaging, and the absence of sustained international mediation as global powers remain preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere.
According to Foreign Policy, both countries have reinforced troop positions near disputed border areas, a development that analysts say could threaten the safety of thousands of civilians living in frontier communities.
The warning comes amid growing instability across the Horn of Africa, where overlapping conflicts and geopolitical rivalries are stretching regional diplomacy thin. Sudan remains locked in a devastating war with no clear end in sight, while Somalia faces mounting external pressure and internal political strains.
The report argues that international attention has shifted away from the Horn as governments worldwide focus on strengthening domestic defenses and preparing for potential conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. As a result, preventive diplomacy in Africa has weakened.
Ethiopia and Eritrea formally ended two decades of hostility with a 2018 peace agreement, a deal that reshaped regional alliances and earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a Nobel Peace Prize. However, relations have since deteriorated, particularly following shifting alignments after Ethiopia’s war in Tigray and unresolved security disputes along the border.
Neither Addis Ababa nor Asmara has publicly responded to the report.
Regional analysts warn that a direct conflict between the two states would have serious regional consequences, potentially destabilizing Red Sea security, disrupting trade routes, and drawing in neighboring countries already grappling with conflict and economic stress.
