MOGADISHU, – Somalia’s opposition movement is splintering ahead of the country’s first planned direct local elections, with several veteran leaders preparing to launch new political parties, deepening divisions within the main opposition coalition and reshaping the challenge to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, ex-South West State president Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, and former parliamentary speaker Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdurrahman are expected to announce their own parties this week, political sources said. The three men, all seasoned figures, are eyeing the municipal polls due in October, regarded as a key step toward universal suffrage after decades of clan-based, indirect voting.
Their departure from the Salvation Forum, the largest opposition coalition, underscores a widening rift. At the same time, a rival bloc led by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, ex-prime ministers Hassan Ali Khaire and Mohamed Hussein Roble, and opposition lawmaker Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame is seeking to regroup under a new alliance. The group aims to consolidate resources and messaging against Mohamud, whom they accuse of monopolizing power and undermining consensus.
The split comes as Somalia’s Independent Electoral Commission reopened registration for political associations, a move that analysts say could expand participation but risks further fragmenting the political field.
Since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, elections have been held through a system in which clan elders select delegates to choose lawmakers and the president. A nationwide shift to “one person, one vote” has long been stalled by insecurity, weak institutions, and disputes between Mogadishu and federal member states. While Puntland piloted direct municipal voting in 2021, nationwide implementation remains elusive.
The opposition split adds pressure on Mohamud’s administration, which is grappling with both political reform and a military campaign against al Qaeda-linked Al Shabaab insurgents. Federal–regional tensions, particularly with Puntland and Jubaland, further complicate consensus-building. International partners — including the UN, AU, and Western donors — have urged Somali leaders to avoid political paralysis and safeguard fragile reforms.
With just weeks before the October municipal polls, Somalia faces a volatile mix of political fragmentation, insurgent threats, and public disillusionment. For many ordinary Somalis, elite rivalries risk overshadowing urgent priorities such as security, livelihoods, and state-building, raising doubts over whether the elections can deliver the promised transition to universal suffrage.